First Impressions

Well, here's my take on ST so far:

1. Penny

From today's Dodger notes on mlb.com:

Penny, continuing his steady progress, ended his 61-pitch bullpen session with three fastballs that had all the looks of game velocity.

"That was pretty good, huh?" said Penny, obviously pleased. "I got into it quicker today. Sometimes, it's a little, I don't know, stiff on maybe every fifth pitch or every 10th pitch, but today it felt good. And the end was really good, I really cut loose."

Penny's last few pitches looked like season-ready fastballs, and he had his whole body behind them. This was his 12th bullpen session of the spring, and he hasn't missed any or reported any setbacks.

This is obviously a good sign, although it seems clear that Penny will open the season on the DL. However, with the emergence of Scott Erickson as this year's Jose Lima, and Ishii's strong ST (4 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 4 K, 2 BB today), I don't feel that this is a huge issue. If Penny come back healthy in mid-April and stays that way, we'll be more than fine. However, considering the strange nature of his injury, that is a significant if. Rob Nen pitched quite well for years after suffering a similar nerve injury, but the injury is so rare that it's hard to predict how Penny will respond.

2. Gagne

From the same article, here are Gagne's words on his sprained knee:

"I think I'll have to deal with it all year," he said. "[Trainer Stan Johnston] did a good job taping it really tight and it was pretty comfortable, but it's still in my head a little. I feel it a little when I land. I just have to get over the hump and trust it."

"I can't say now that it won't [affect my pitching]. But today it was better than I thought. I'm just not sure how it will hold up."

Will this be a significant factor during the year? Hard to say. Am I worried? Heck ya. Gagne's a tough operator, and if our starting pitching holds up and we hit decently, we won't need him to dupicate his 2003 Cy Young season, but this is obviously somewhat worrisome. Right now, though, there's no sense in fretting too much about it.

3. Pitching in general

The best thing so far is the emergence of Erickson, which gives us strong depth in the starting rotation. Ishii has also pitched far better than he usually does in ST, which may be a sign that after being banished to the bullpen twice last year and nearly traded once during the winter, he realizes that he needs to get it together or else. With Penny unable to start until perhaps mid-April and Odalis Perez also slowed down by what looks like a minor injury, this depth allows us to be cautious with both. Alvarez has also pitched well and declared a desire to join the rotation, but I think it's clear that he's too old to do anything more than spot start. He has far too much value in the pen in my view to place in the rotation.

I also would rather Erickson serve as the 6th starter/swingman, because I think Ishii has very little value in the pen, and because I've always been a fan of his and have been hoping for a while that he can find some consistency. That makes me biased, but I would hate to see him figure things out after we trade him. Anyhow, the only way he'll have trade value is if he has another strong first half, so no matter what, I think it's best that he open the season in the rotation. And right now, he's pitching well enough in ST to earn it.

So, when OP and Penny get healthy and ready, my rotation would be:

1. Lowe (R)
2. Penny (R)
3. Perez (L)
4. Weaver (R)
5. Ishii (L)

I think Lowe will have a great year--18-20 wins and an ERA in the mid-3s. I think Dodger Stadium suits him really well, and I think the less stressful environment of LA will do wonders on his psyche. If Penny is healthy, this gives us in my view the best rotation in the division, with two pitchers who've been successful in the postseason at the top of the rotation. People need to remember that Ishii was a big-game pitcher in Japan.

In the bullpen:

6. Erickson (RHP swingman)
7. Alvarez (LHP swingman)
8. D. J. Houlton (Long relief)
9. Carrara (Middle relief)
10. Brazoban (Setup)
11. Gagne (Closer)

A few comments are in order here. First of all, neither Venafro or Wunsch, our candidates for the lefty-specialist role, have been especially impressive. I think Trace would carry a lefty just for the sake of carrying one, but I'm personally hoping that DePo prevails on him not to. Far too much can be made of lefty/lefty matchups.

I'm also predicting the trades of Duaner Sanchez and Elmer Dessens. The latter I see as a waste of roster space in our organization, and although Sanchez had a decent year with us in 2004, I like Houlton more, who's pitched well in ST. Houlton is also a Rule V, so we have to give him back to Houston if he doesn't make the 25-man roster for the whole year. As a starter, I just think he has more upside than Sanchez, who has a live arm but who in our organization strikes me as pretty pedestrian. If Houlton continues to pitch well, I'd rather we give him Sanchez's spot.

If, however, we elect to carry 12 pitchers, and DePo isn't willing to trade both Dessens and Sanchez, I'd give up the former, because the latter still has upside.

I'll cover position players in the next post.