Nakamura vs. Saenz

Here's an interesting tidbit from yesterday's Dodger Notes on mlb.com:

It won't be easy for Nakamura to make the club as it now stands. With Jose Valentin the starting third baseman, it was believed Nakamura would compete with Antonio Perez as the backup. But Perez is out of options and virtually has the job as the lone back-up middle infielder. Nakamura probably would need to beat out Olmedo Saenz as the primary right-handed pinch-hitter and back-up corner infielder.
Saenz has a guaranteed $650,000 contract, while Nakamura has a $500,000 minor league contract.

In my previous roster projections, I actually had room for both, but it looks like I was wrong. Saenz was quite good off the bench, but I'd prefer Nakamura, despite the money issue. Nakamura has more potential to be an everyday player and his glove is far superior to Saenz's, which is adequate at 1B and dubious at 3B. If Nakamura continues to hit, I think DePo should package Saenz in a trade. The guy does have value as a good right-handed bat with some pop who can come off the bench, so I think we can get a decent prospect in return.

Only having space for one or the another seems to be make it more likely that we'll carry 12 pitchers this year. I have never been a big fan of carrying 12 pitchers, but Tracy has regularly done this during his time as the field manager. Carrying an extra pitcher would probably mean that we'd have a situational lefty in the pen or that we'd be able allow us to either have a situational lefty (blech) or hold one to either Sanchez or Dessens. If Houlton continues to pitch well, I still see at least one of those two to be traded to clear roster space.

I should also point out that because Penny will be opening the season on the DL, we have more wiggle room at the beginning of the season.

Position Players

If we carry 11 pitchers, that gives us 14 slots for position players. Here are my preferences/predictions:

Starters

1. Dioner Navarro (C)
2. Choi (1B)
3. Kent (2B)
4. Izturis (SS)
5. Valentin (3B, in straight platoon)
6. Werth (LF)
7. Bradley (CF)
8. Drew (RF)

David Ross has looked awful, while Navarro has shown some of his on-base ability so far in ST. If it looks like the new kid can hit around .250 in the bigs and draw enough walks to raise his OBP to around .300, I'd take that over Ross. Those numbers would be adequate in my view in the 8th slot in the order, even if my grand schemes about Grabowski (see blow) prove entirely unrealistic.

I've always been high on Choi, and I expect him to vindicate DePo's confidence this year. For a good place on Choi news, see this new blog.

Bench

9. Bako (C)
10. Ledee (OF)
11. Perez (2B/3B)
12. Nakamura (3B/1B)
13. Saenz (1B)
14. Grabowski (C/OF)

I expect Nakamura to be the regular platoon partner of Valentin at 3B. Perez swings a good bat, but he seems to have trouble adjusting to 3B in ST. I hope that Nakamura shows enough skill with the bat to take that job. Perez will get playing time as the all purpose middle IF utility-man. I expect Choi to only gradually get ABs against lefties, so against some LHPs, I'd like to see Kent at 1B and Perez at 2B. However, I do think Choi needs to get a fair shake against LHP to see what he can do.

I'm also being optimistic in this scenario that the Grabowski as 3rd catcher experiment continues to progress well. When he got consistent playing time, Grabowski hit well last season. In May, when he got 60 ABs, Grabowski hit 283/358/533. He got 25 ABs in June, the second-highest month for him in terms of playing time. I'd like to see him be "good enough" at catcher to maybe catch the first 5-6 innings of a fair number of games, with Navarro and Bako coming in as defensive replacements in the late innings, especially when we have the lead. I'd like to see Grabowski get maybe 300 ABs this way, along with random starts in LF, where he's pretty bad, as opposed to 173 ABs last year.

Of course, he may just not be a good enough backstop to do this, or Navarro may hit well enough that this isn't necessary. Or, Trace, who's very by-the-book, might not want to do this kind of weird juggling on the roster. We'll see I suppose.

If Werth isn't ready by the beginning of the season, I think we have Repko take his slot on the roster, if Repko doesn't end up like Jason Romano last ST. Romano had a great ST last year (like Repko so far this ST) and was promptly traded for Antonio Perez in DePo's most lopsided deal as Dodgers GM. Romano never stuck with either Tampa Bay or Cleveland and Perez looks to be a strong MI utilityman who can hit and still has upside. Perez may end up the everyday 2B if Kent leaves after his contract, and if Delwyn Young and Willy Aybar, our 2B prospects, don't pan out. Repko may suffer the same fate as Romano, and it may end up being the right thing to do. Repko's minor league career isn't terribly impressive, and I actually in some ways would rather CF Chen to open the season as the replacement corner OF if Werth needs some time on the DL.

The lineup is really the acid-test of DePo's style of management. Choi is the bigget question mark here, I think. As is Drew, who is a more complete player in my view than Beltre due to his high OBP, but who must stay healthy. The other issue is whether or not we'll get enough out of the catcher-position to prevent the 8th spot in the order from being a black hole.

First Impressions

Well, here's my take on ST so far:

1. Penny

From today's Dodger notes on mlb.com:

Penny, continuing his steady progress, ended his 61-pitch bullpen session with three fastballs that had all the looks of game velocity.

"That was pretty good, huh?" said Penny, obviously pleased. "I got into it quicker today. Sometimes, it's a little, I don't know, stiff on maybe every fifth pitch or every 10th pitch, but today it felt good. And the end was really good, I really cut loose."

Penny's last few pitches looked like season-ready fastballs, and he had his whole body behind them. This was his 12th bullpen session of the spring, and he hasn't missed any or reported any setbacks.

This is obviously a good sign, although it seems clear that Penny will open the season on the DL. However, with the emergence of Scott Erickson as this year's Jose Lima, and Ishii's strong ST (4 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 4 K, 2 BB today), I don't feel that this is a huge issue. If Penny come back healthy in mid-April and stays that way, we'll be more than fine. However, considering the strange nature of his injury, that is a significant if. Rob Nen pitched quite well for years after suffering a similar nerve injury, but the injury is so rare that it's hard to predict how Penny will respond.

2. Gagne

From the same article, here are Gagne's words on his sprained knee:

"I think I'll have to deal with it all year," he said. "[Trainer Stan Johnston] did a good job taping it really tight and it was pretty comfortable, but it's still in my head a little. I feel it a little when I land. I just have to get over the hump and trust it."

"I can't say now that it won't [affect my pitching]. But today it was better than I thought. I'm just not sure how it will hold up."

Will this be a significant factor during the year? Hard to say. Am I worried? Heck ya. Gagne's a tough operator, and if our starting pitching holds up and we hit decently, we won't need him to dupicate his 2003 Cy Young season, but this is obviously somewhat worrisome. Right now, though, there's no sense in fretting too much about it.

3. Pitching in general

The best thing so far is the emergence of Erickson, which gives us strong depth in the starting rotation. Ishii has also pitched far better than he usually does in ST, which may be a sign that after being banished to the bullpen twice last year and nearly traded once during the winter, he realizes that he needs to get it together or else. With Penny unable to start until perhaps mid-April and Odalis Perez also slowed down by what looks like a minor injury, this depth allows us to be cautious with both. Alvarez has also pitched well and declared a desire to join the rotation, but I think it's clear that he's too old to do anything more than spot start. He has far too much value in the pen in my view to place in the rotation.

I also would rather Erickson serve as the 6th starter/swingman, because I think Ishii has very little value in the pen, and because I've always been a fan of his and have been hoping for a while that he can find some consistency. That makes me biased, but I would hate to see him figure things out after we trade him. Anyhow, the only way he'll have trade value is if he has another strong first half, so no matter what, I think it's best that he open the season in the rotation. And right now, he's pitching well enough in ST to earn it.

So, when OP and Penny get healthy and ready, my rotation would be:

1. Lowe (R)
2. Penny (R)
3. Perez (L)
4. Weaver (R)
5. Ishii (L)

I think Lowe will have a great year--18-20 wins and an ERA in the mid-3s. I think Dodger Stadium suits him really well, and I think the less stressful environment of LA will do wonders on his psyche. If Penny is healthy, this gives us in my view the best rotation in the division, with two pitchers who've been successful in the postseason at the top of the rotation. People need to remember that Ishii was a big-game pitcher in Japan.

In the bullpen:

6. Erickson (RHP swingman)
7. Alvarez (LHP swingman)
8. D. J. Houlton (Long relief)
9. Carrara (Middle relief)
10. Brazoban (Setup)
11. Gagne (Closer)

A few comments are in order here. First of all, neither Venafro or Wunsch, our candidates for the lefty-specialist role, have been especially impressive. I think Trace would carry a lefty just for the sake of carrying one, but I'm personally hoping that DePo prevails on him not to. Far too much can be made of lefty/lefty matchups.

I'm also predicting the trades of Duaner Sanchez and Elmer Dessens. The latter I see as a waste of roster space in our organization, and although Sanchez had a decent year with us in 2004, I like Houlton more, who's pitched well in ST. Houlton is also a Rule V, so we have to give him back to Houston if he doesn't make the 25-man roster for the whole year. As a starter, I just think he has more upside than Sanchez, who has a live arm but who in our organization strikes me as pretty pedestrian. If Houlton continues to pitch well, I'd rather we give him Sanchez's spot.

If, however, we elect to carry 12 pitchers, and DePo isn't willing to trade both Dessens and Sanchez, I'd give up the former, because the latter still has upside.

I'll cover position players in the next post.